商业计划是成功的关键部分 战略财务决策过程. 它们有助于把想法写在纸上, 目前的市场数据可以支持这种说法, and articulate the financial side of an argument. 当谈到商业计划时, it’s not only about the numbers; the narrative and the assumptions used to drive them is just as important, 如果不是更重要的话. There is an art to getting the story and the numbers right, 这不是一个可以“游戏化”的过程.” However, there are common pitfalls that, if avoided, can increase the chances of success.

Scenario #1: Consistency, Consistency, Consistency

The most common error in business plans is the lack of consistency. 根据我的经验, this is never intentional but comes as a consequence of how business plans are written. 这通常是因为不同的团队负责不同的部门，各自为营, or through disconnected interactions with senior management. 商业计划应该读起来像一个故事. 例如, 从市场和竞争部门收集的见解应反映在财务预算部门的假设驱动因素中.

Knowing how to engage the insights of the senior management team is critical. 如果你让他们过多地参与商业计划, 这个过程可能会变得非常缓慢, 但如果你工作太独立, then your final output may take a dangerously wide tangent.

根据我的经验，在完成初稿后，与相关部门的领导召开简短的会议，收集他们的想法和见解. 有一次, 我们使用这种方法为目标公司(一家互联网服务提供商)建立了一个审查小组. The operations team identified an underutilized part of the target’s network, 营销团队确定了如何利用它, and the financing team identified 30% of unrealized value that could be unlocked.

一个非常常见的例子是，一个商业计划承诺以有限的营销或资本支出来实现激进的收入增长. If you make more products (or get more users) to sell, 你需要资源来生产和销售它们. 有些服务的边际成本结构为零——比如软件——这种策略可能会奏效, 但更多的时候, 预算将出现脱节. Let’s look at a simple example from an income statement budget:

图1:模型

该模型假设如下:

1. Revenue to grow by 10% over the coming five years.
2. Gross margin will remain constant for the foreseeable future.
3. Overhead expenses will increase by USD 250 year on year.
4. 市场营销 and other expenses will remain constant.

让我们假设我们看了商业计划的行业部分，并发现顾问预计该公司的市场在未来五年内将以5%的复合年增长率增长.

我们公司的预算假设其收入将以两倍于行业的速度增长，而管理费用和营销费用的投资非常有限. This presents a break in the narrative—to grow at a higher rate than the market, you must take market share from other competitors, which (in a fair market) requires some form of investment. 这种投资可以投资于人, 营销渠道, 或者其他形式的竞争优势. 需要指出的是，当前数据的呈现构成了叙述中的一个中断, 这需要好的论据来支持.

现在, 假设顾问们预计未来五年市场的复合年增长率为20%. 好吧, 故事现在颠倒过来了, and the company is set to underperform; the lower investment forecast now appears more logical. 通过减少开支, the company will probably concede some of the market share, which is being taken into consideration in the growth forecast.

场景2:隧道视野

Another common pitfall is coming into a business plan process with a rigid mindset. While a business plan typically presents one scenario of how things will unfold in the future, feel free to explore other options as you build the plan and do not stick to one approach. 利用财务模型和市场调查来探索企业可以采取的其他可能的途径. Use the financial analysis to explore other areas: for example, a pivot into a 订阅模式，或者使用分层定价. 这个计划给你一个机会去探索你的战略对你的业务的其他方面的影响, 例如净营运资本和资本支出.

有一次是在之前的工作中, we had a manufacturing client that was looking to expand his operations massively, and he believed that the business would grow significantly over the coming years. 客户计划将商业计划作为交易的一部分，其中包括出售部分业务. After conducting our analysis, we presented our findings to the client. 客户期望的增长不仅没有得到外部市场研究的支持，而且会破坏客户的价值. 净营运资本投资如此巨大，足以抵消收入增长带来的任何收益.

We helped the client rethink both his business plan and exit strategy. 我们提供的分析指出了他可以考虑进入的其他市场领域, 这 优化营运资金 should come before any significant growth efforts into the core business.

客户提供的初始商业计划

修订后的商业计划

注:终端价值是使用永续增长模型得出的，使用3%的终端增长率和10%的贴现率.

从表格中可以看出, the final enterprise value in the revised plan is higher than in the client’s original. 两者之间的唯一区别是收入增长率和净营运资本假设. 最初的说法是，该公司寻求激进的增长，因此愿意在营运资本上大举投资以实现这一目标. However, the growth would end up costing the company more harm than benefit. While the narrative is clear, its implications were not fully thought out. Of course, there are other arguments that can be used. 举个例子, 在第一个场景中使用的终端增长率可能更高，或者使用当前25%的增长率线性收敛到3% (H-model). 这些可能是有效的论点, but you must substantiate them in your plan and provide the logic and data that support them.

场景#3:我有我的方式

做事没有对错之分 制定商业计划, so take your time; think about the idea and lay out a solution and a structure that has logic. 如果你正在颠覆一个行业, 重点应该放在你的产品与竞争对手的产品有什么不同，以及这对最终客户意味着什么. 另一方面, 如果你想进入一个受监管的市场, then you need to understand the laws and regulations that you intend to overcome. Pick an approach that works for you and will help you achieve your goal.

In one case, I worked for a client that was trying to launch an eCommerce business. 客户非常专注于为业务开发详细的模型，并使用回报度量来评估投资的可行性. 大多数电子商务企业都是亏损的，需要大量的时间和投资才能在经济上可行. 我帮助客户了解为什么他目前的方法可能无法帮助他获得预期的结果，并将他的注意力转移到了解不开始在线业务的机会成本上, and what it would take for him to build a profitable one. 我们可以更可靠地回答这些问题，并为客户提供现实的数据点，以确定所需的投资和所需的操作类型，以产生有吸引力的回报.

让我们看一下这个场景的一个例子. Suppose that the total retail market size (including offline and online channels) is $1 billion, 和预测估计，电子商务的渗透率将在五年内增加到10%，而由于电子商务的竞争动态，线下利润率将下降5%. 如果你的市场份额是30%.e., 你们的年收入是3亿美元), then you risk losing 10% in market share and another 5% in margin. So your total loss is around $35 million annually. This is not a precise calculation and should be supported by further research, but it does give you a grasp of what you are at risk of losing. 它给你的叙述提供了一个不同的视角，可以帮助你弥补分析中的一些空白.

Numbers <> Real Life?

There are certain norms about business plans and projections that continually prevail. 最显著, 他们被期望对业务如何展开提出乐观(但现实)的看法. Keeping that in mind, have a think about what your numbers mean in real life. If you assume the price of products and margins will continue to improve, what will stop competitors from offering lower prices and getting a lower margin from you? If you are in a platform business and you assume a declining customer acquisition cost, how are you going to maintain your customer base and add to it? An often neglected part of a business plan is return measures, such as return to equity and return on invested capital. 它们在计划中没有必要的功能，但可以是一种很好的方式来检查你的假设.

Building great business plans takes as much art as science. 商业计划的本质是对你的业务和背后的思考过程的叙述. 如果你觉得难以承受，那就记住查尔斯·芒格的话:“事情本来就不容易. 觉得容易的人都是傻瓜.”